Will humans be needed if the schemes of robotic scientists come to fruition. They are even talking about the time, in only a few decades, when we have relationships with compliant, ever - willing lovers. The automation of low to medium skill jobs has already caused a social disaster among the working classes of developed nations but now increasingly the talk is of automating higher skill and management functions. Fortunately talk of Artificial Intelligence is bollocks.
Will Humans Become Redundant In Your Lifetime?
Will humans be needed if the schemes
of robotic scientists come to fruition. They are even talking about the
time, in only a few decades, when we have relationships with compliant,
ever - willing lovers. The automation of low to medium skill jobs has
already caused a social disaster among the working classes of developed
nations but now increasingly the talk is of automating higher skill and
management functions.
The widening gap between investment in job killing technology and
in job creation for human workers makes nonsense of' promises to "focus
on job creation" and their exhortations to young people to stay in full
timed education and saddle themselves with debt in order to get a degree
qualification. This dehumanisation of industry and commerce means the
prospects look bright for robots and computers but where do people stand
in the food chain? On the fringes unless you live on inherited wealth
or are part of an academic and political elite.
We are bombarded
every day with news of new uses for computers and machines that
initially augment but will eventually replace human labour. Google
claims to have developed cars that drive themselves, algorithms can
write news stories from data, compose music or poetry and, it is claimed
though somewhat exaggeratedly, fool real people that they are
conversing with humans (in tests the only people fooled were scientists;
does this mean they are not real people) , In Japan and increasingly in
the west factories run “lights out” for weeks at a time with little or
no human presence required.
Historically, technology revolutions
spawn waves of creative destruction that produce new kinds of jobs. For
instance, the industrial revolution put artisans out of work but
employed legions of unskilled laborers. The upshot of this was the
Luddite riots, when gangs of skilled workers, fearing for their
livelihood, would burn mills and factories, smash machines and even
abduct relatives of the owners.
Today all over the developed
world national unemployment rates stand at its highest points for many
decades. In Spain, one of Europe's most threatened nations, thanks
largely to its commitment to "sustainable" energy which left factories
silent and homes in darkness until the already heavily indebted
government started to import electricity from France's nuclear plants,
the unemployment rate is a shade over 20%, or one in five. There and
elsewhere out of work protesters are taking to the streets. The so
called Arab Spring uprising were not triggered by a desire for democracy
as the ever more clownish Barack Obama likes to claim, but by the
hardships imposed by high unemployment, downward pressure on wages as a
result of this and by rising prices impacting on living standards.
Everywhere,
as the global population explodes, work - which is one of the secondary
human needs, not essential to sustain life but important in sustaining a
community - is being done by machines, jobs are being destroyed. As a
long time Information Technology professional I am more aware than most
people of the damage inflicted on society by the internet. We are all
required to laud and extol the net as one of the great technological
advances yet apart from making us all more likely to be isolated,
blurring the lines between fantasy and reality and shortening the
attention span, it has been a huge job killer. In many of Britain's town
and city centres up to a third of shops now stand empty, victims of the
switch to online trading.
Human Androids
A new book, “Race Against the Machine”
from MIT researchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argues that
jobs lost since the Great Recession haven’t returned partly because
companies have invested more heavily in automated technology, rather
than hiring (outsourcing is another cause). The authors spell out the
consequences in an article published in The Atlantic:
“The threat
of technological unemployment is real. To understand this threat, we’ll
define three overlapping sets of winners and losers that technical
change creates: (1) high-skilled vs. low-skilled workers, (2) superstars
vs. everyone else, and (3) capital vs. labour. Each set has
well-documented facts and compelling links to digital technology. What’s
more, these sets are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the winners in
one set are more likely to be winners in the other two sets as well,
which concentrates the consequences.”
Nobody is immune.
Administrative and sales functions are being automated and though
customers might hate dealing with robotic voices instructing them to
press a number for ordering, another for checking delivery dates
economics are all and in the end machines are cheaper, do not call in
sick, do not join unions and do not get pregnant / injure themselves
playing dangerous sports. In the coming decades, advanced pattern
recognition software and AI-driven systems will replace much of what
knowledge workers do today, including those in the retail, legal and
information technology industries.
The trend has led experts
like Douglas Rushkoff to question if work is obsolete and if society
should continue to organize itself around employment or look for other
ways to occupy humans before they descent into self destructive
lifestyles through sheer boredom.. Others, mainly those who would
themselves prefer to be machines as they have never been comfortable
with emotions, view this labour revolution with optimism, claiming that
we have a place alongside machines. It is making us confront the
fundamental question of what humans are good at and potentially expose a
greater meaning to life. This is all very well but in this scientific
utopia probably 80% or more of us would find no place for our skills.
The nerd elite do not much care for music, art, literature or poetry the
things humans excel at and from experience I can tell you machines are
utter crap at.
One fan of this drive to make us the slaves of
machines has written, "Over the next decade, while machines will replace
humans in some tasks, they’ll also amplify us, enabling us to do things
we never dreamed of doing before. We’ll enter into a new kind of
partnership with these machines—one that will shine light on the unique
comparative advantages of humans: thinking, creativity, spontaneity,
adaptability, and improvisation." Really? In the fifty years since
computer and digital technology started to have an impact on society
large swathes of the population have started to rapidly de-evolve,
heading back towards the knuckle dragging, selfish, impulsive state of
our early early ancestors.
The World Future Society argues that
industries that undergo technological transformation don’t disappear,
but the number of jobs they support sure do. For instance, agribusiness
employed half the population in the early 1900’s but now provides just
3% of all jobs. David Autor, an economist at MIT, says that the
transition towards a post-industrial economy will see a clustering of
job opportunities at opposite ends of the skills spectrum where machines
have yet to foray.
At one end of the spectrum are low-paying
service-oriented jobs that require personal interaction and the
manipulation of machinery in unpredictable environments, such as cooking
food in a busy kitchen, or taking care of pre-schoolers. At the other
end are jobs that require creativity, ambiguity, and high levels of
personal training and judgment. These include jobs that require both
physical and advanced mental capabilities e.g., doctors and engineers or
in tasks that involve rapid decision making in unpredictable and
unprecedented situations such as nurses and plumbers. The nerds may
cream themselves dreaming of machines that can think like humans, but
forgetting the "like humans" bit, I have described how machines filter
data previously (IBM to build a chip that emulates the human brain). Basically it comes down to "If X = n then do action." Now that is not by any definition thinking.
According
to the sociologists 65% of today’s school pupils will end up in a non
job, paper shuffling or bean counting in a government office or in a
pointless manual task simply for the sake of keeping them occupied.
Clearly the establishment and the business and commercial worlds have
not thought through the likely consequences of this crazy drive to
dehumanisation of work. Politicians, academic institutions, and business
leaders need to think about what will happen to society if machines are
used to make humanity redundant in the name of efficiency and profit.
We are pitifully unprepared for the challenges of a world with seven
billion people in it, if half those people are surplus to requirements
who knows what kind of trouble they may cause just to make life
interesting.
“The activities that make us human – thinking,
dreaming, learning, communicating, and feeling, are the skills that are
the most difficult to program. In a contest of “man vs. machine”, people
will continue to shine and outperform in these areas for years to
come,” says the World Future Society. That's all very well but what
about the people who aren't equipped to be artists, musicians, writers,
performers, poets, philosophers or athletes. There are rather more of
them than the "experts" appear to think.
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Picture credit for this section: David (Brother Bastion) Thorpe
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