Tuesday, 28 August 2018

Brexit Deal Or No Deal?


As the politicians continue to blether to no effect about the terms on which Britain will trade with the EU after Brexit, and mainstream media, owned by global corporations except for the BBC which is technically ownedf by the nation but is managed and staffed by LEFT WING CUNTS, continue to bad mouth anyone wo was part of the LEAVE campaign, or has confessed to voting to leave, a question that is being asked in pubs and bars all over the land goes sometjing like this: Why isn't the European Union asking the UK for a good trading deal when they need the UK’s billions in imports as much as the UK needs theirs?

The concept of the EU as a whole is the elephant in the room here. While the original Common Market, and its subsequent names, The European Economic Community and The European Community were sold to voters as a free trade and economic cooperation group for west European nations, the underlying concept was for "ever closer union" towards a federal European superstate, with the sovereignty of member states surrendered to a central bureaucracy, reducing ancient nations like England, Scotland, Denmark, France, Spain and Portugal to the status of semi autonomous provinces.

The EU is currently comprised of 28 sovereign states (27 from next April) ranging from Germany with the fourth largest economy in the world and a population of eighty five million to little Malta and Luxembourg which are each home to less than a million people. Each has its own priorities. For any decision to be made all 28 (in the form of the Council of Ministers) need to be in agreement. On top of that there is the European Commission (EC) - the EU civil service, except they actually have a say and the European Parliament who like to think they have a say.

In reality the EC makes decisions, the Council of Ministers refines it the EP rubber stamps it. The fly in the ointment for federalists is that any member state can veto any proposal it's political leader (i.e. representative on the council of ministers deems not in the interests of their country.

With the differing electoral cycles changing the political complexion of the different sovereign states’ governments, and with anti EU feeling gaining ground in many member states it is very difficult to achieve a consensus on anything. Some areas of policy are covered by majority voting and those areas move a little faster.

A good example of this is CETA, the Comprehensive Economic And Trade Agreement, a trading agreement with Japan, often incorectly referred to as a 'free trade' agreement as it set out in over a thousand pages the rules and regulations which would apply to trades between EU and Japanese companies as well as tariffs and export limits on certain categories of goods. It was negotiated, agreed, signed and to all intents and purposes a done deal. Then Italy had a General Election and their Government changed. The new Italian Government do not think CETA is a good deal for Italy and have said they will not ratify it.

So, even though all 28 governments agreed it, and 9 have ratified it, it now looks dead in the water. The trade negotiators can re-engage and re-negotiate a deal, but it would be open to another government scuppering the revised agreement.

As I see it, this has been the problem with the EU since the turn of the century when the single currency (The Euro) was introduced. It is too big and is unable to make big decisions in a reasonable timeframe. The natural limit of the EU was probably reached in 1995 when Austria, Sweden and Finland were admitted. At that point it could be said that roughly the area west of a line drawn from the southernmost shore of the baltic to the northernmost tip of The Adriatic was the EU. And those nations have a lot in common culturally and economically.

We could go into the whole ‘Federal European Superstate’ debate but I have dealth with that elsewhere (HERE, HERE and HERE). While I am against the UK being part of a federal European superstate, I think it its either that or the collapse of the EU. Only when German workers are wiling to fund Greek unemployment benefits and healthcare will the EU really work well.
Back to the question:

The EU negotiating stance, which is basically that the UK must continue to accept EU authority in all matters of policy and law, is basically all they can agree upon in the timescale. To deviate from that would lead to a deal that they could not get ratified by all 27 remaining EU nations after Brexit. Here lies the problem. Germany, France, Italy & Spain want to continue to export their cars to the UK, Eastern European Governments want their citizens to be able to live and work freely in the UK. France wants to export wine and cheese to the UK, the Netherlands wants to sell us tulips and beer and Denmark wants us to keep buying its bacon. But France do not want unrestricted imports of British beef & lamb, Germany does not want unlimited exports of engineering products and textiles and so on and so forth. And they'd all like to get their hands on a slice of our trade in financial and management services.

There is no way such a deal could have been done in 2 years, it's unlikely one could ever be done. I doubt that the 21 month implementation period recently suggested would be enough time to achieve anything significant.

In my opinion (which has not wavered since I voted to leave,) I voted to leave) the UK will spend a substantial time on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, which are not really very different to the terms EU member states trade on now, while trade agreements with individual member states are negotiated and as the EU disintegrates. During that time we can be outward-looking negotiating agreements with countries that are able to make decisions in a timely manner.

If we leave the EU without agreement on March 29th, 2019 I would put money on there being trade agreements in place with the other major economies long before the EU.


Brexit Will Not Make UK More Exposed to Attacks, Says Former Counter-Terrorism Chief
As the UK still reels from last week's sucidebomb attack which killed 22 people and left over 100 injured after a pop concert in Manchester, the former counter-terrorism chief of London's Metropolitan Police has said Brexit will not weaken the UK’s security measures or make the country more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
Quitaly? Will Italy follow Britain out of the EU?
With a referendum in Italy, ostensibly on constitutional reforms but perceived as a referendum on the leadership of the ruling elite, looming in November and the anti - globalisation, pro sovereignty Five Star Party growing in popularity all the time. Should the constitutional changes be voted down, and the against campaign is showing a comfortable lead in opinion polls at the moment, it will put a Quitaly in-out referendum, similar to the so called Brexit vote that kick off the process of Britain leaving the European Union, at the top of the agenda.
Threat Of Major Scandal Prompted Early Election Move – UKIP
Leaders of the (UKIP) have made astonishing claim that Prime Minister Teresa May’s calling an early General Election was done to pre-empt a series of by-elections that could be called following alleged electoral fraud. Accusing the Conservative government of “putting party before country”, UKIP appeared to suggest the scandal and ensuing disqualification of MPs could rob the government of its slender majority.
Nigel Farage Swipes Back At Irrational, Screeching, Crazy Clinton
US Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton launched a hysterical, irrational attack, filled with half truths and blatant lies, against the most prominent figure in the campaign to get Britain out of the EU (Brexit), UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, during a speech at a rally today. Mrs Clinton, responding to Farage's address to a large and enthusiastic audience at a Donald Trump rally, may have been rattled at the prospect of having such a hihly effective campaigner in the rival camp ...
Rebellion Against EU Authoritarianism Escalates As 8th Member Nation Threatens Referendum
Brussels went too far, they crossed the line in moving from an economic union to a political pan - European political empire. In the end it was a race as to which member state would quit first, Britain, Natherlands, Denmark or Italy. In the event it is Britain.
Is Brexit A Harbinger Of Doom For The 'Experts' The Brexit vote, the decision by a democratic majority in Britain to leave the European Union has sent shockwaves around the world. Not only does the EU now face a tsunami of departures, the usurpation of democracy by 'experts' ( technocrats ) has been challenged and exposed as a sham.
BREXIT vs. GREXIT – The Truth About The European Union And How It Treats Members
Unless the testicularly deficient politicians stand up for their nations he only thing that will halt the European Union's push beyond Europe's geographical borders to incorporate Asian, middle eastern and north African nations is war. Power is addictive and the bean counters of Brussels have ambitions far beyond Europe.

The Hypocrisy and Snobbery Of The Remain Campaign And The Antidote
When I had to defriend a Facebook contact because she was arguing in favour of the EU, it was not simply because I support Brexit that I had become pissed of with her, it was the snobbish and condescending way she dismissed supporters of LEAVE and their case. People are entitled to their opinion on the European Union, but they should check the 'facts' they post in support of their arguments.
The Labour Case For Brexit by Kate Hoey M.P.
After my short intro is a savage indictment by Brexit supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey of the way the Labour Party has abandoned the working class and is now trying to betray the party's proud heritage and its roots in the industrial areas by taking Britain into an undemocratic, corporate controlled, capitalist friendly, elite dominated globalist control freak project.
Dutch Referendum This Week Shows why We Should Leave The EU.
Few of you were aware probably that there is an EU referendum vote in The Netherlands this week. As usual with anything negative about the EU barely a word has been printed in the topic in mainstream media and the silence from our notionally unbiased national broadcaster The Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has been deafening.
French, Belgians, Dutch, Italians Follow Britain in Euroskepticism
Europeans want us British to lead them out of Europe. Don't be fooled by project fear, the European Union (aka the Euronazi Federal Superstate) is falling apart. There will not be chaos if we leave, there will be chaos if we stay.
Head Of European Institute: Brexit ‘Better’ For Everyone
Brexit would be the best result of Britain’s in / out referendum for both Britain and the EU i a Belgian professor who heads up the European Institute at the London School of Economics (LSE) has said.
Johnson’s article lines up his reasons why Britain must exit on June 23rd. It’s time to be brave
OK, I know a lot of you think Boris is most accurately described by a word many people find offensive, but he’s put together a very good argument here on why we must leave the EU. Published in part here under ‘fair use’ terms and conditions, in the public interest ...
Cameron’s EU Package: Not A Deal But A Few Turns In The Spin Machine As we and almost everybody else predicted, David Cameron's deal to improve Britain's relationship with the EU is worthless. It changes nmothing, and can be vetoed once we have voted to stay in.
Cameron Plays Deal Or No Deal In Europe
David Cameron, who was apparently up all night trying to make other European leaders understand why his country needs a better deal in order to poersuade the prople it is a good idea stay in the EU. Unless Cameron gets what will enable him to sell the idea of surrendering national sovereignty to a Federal European Superstate ruled by a committee of unelected bureaucrats in to the British public he will not campaign for the UK to remain in the bloc

No comments:

Post a comment